Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
San Diego State Aztecs
69 – 66
FINAL Neutral Conference Mountain West
Wyoming Cowboys
Mountain West Conference · Thomas & Mack Center (Neutral) · March 11, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -15.5 Away covered
O/U 145.5 Under
Money SDSU -1600 / WYO +1200
Model Predictions
Spread Total SDSU win
Actual SDSU +3 135 Won
Massey SDSU -15.2 (-12.2) — —
Massey Totals — 147.2 (-12.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 88% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 92% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML SDSU -12.4 (-9.4) 144.6 (-9.6) 86% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SDSU -12.1 (-9.1) 141.9 (-6.9) 85% ✓
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -12.2 (-9.2) 142.7 (-7.7) 86% ✓
Baseline ML SDSU -12.5 (-9.5) 142.7 (-7.7) 85% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 4, 2026 SDSU 72 – 63 WYO
Jan 15, 2026 SDSU 74 – 57 WYO
Mar 2, 2025 SDSU 72 – 69 WYO
Feb 2, 2025 SDSU 63 – 61 WYO
Jan 24, 2024 SDSU 81 – 65 WYO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SDSU WYO
Overall 23-5 14-11
Conference 14-3 7-9
Home 13-2 7-5
Away 6-2 4-5
Neutral 4-1 3-1
Last 5 5-0 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.3 76.6
Avg Pts Against 61.9 75.5
Massey 13.9 (#23) -1.3 (#187)
Bradley-Terry 2.50 (#19) 0.50 (#125)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.94 (#27) 0.49 (#141)
RPI 0.621 (#8) 0.481 (#203)
Shooting & Four Factors SDSU WYO
FG% 45.2% 45.0%
3PT% 38.0% 35.2%
REB / G 36.4 32.8
OREB / G 10.3 8.3
AST / TO 1.20 1.26
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.9% 53.6%
TOV% 17.5% 15.9%
ORB% 30.6% 23.2%
FT Rate 24.2% 25.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.9% 52.8%
Opp TOV% 22.7% 18.4%
DRB% 76.0% 71.7%
Opp FT Rate 22.2% 24.2%

Game Analysis

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