Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | IDST +130 MTST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +8 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -1.6 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -1.7 (-6.3) | 129.1 (+4.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -1.2 (-6.8) | 127.2 (+6.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -2.5 (-5.5) | 130.4 (+3.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -2.0 (-6.0) | 130.6 (+3.4) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | IDST 91 – 76 MTST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | MTST 74 – 62 IDST |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MTST 80 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTST 74 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | IDST 70 – 67 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 8-6 |
| Home | 8-3 | 5-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#265) | -4.4 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#271) | -0.91 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#284) | -1.06 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#254) | 0.460 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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