Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–17 on winners spread MAE 9.6 48 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
DePaul @ Creighton +21.0 145.8 91% 62–85 ✓
Arizona State @ Oregon State +0.2 139.6 53% 71–84 ✓
NC State @ Syracuse +2.7 144.4 65% 65–77 ✓
UCF @ Cincinnati +5.1 135.6 70% 57–68 ✓
Air Force @ Fresno State +1.0 134.4 55% 70–84 ✓
Mercer @ UNC Greensboro +9.5 137.1 84% 70–64 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion +4.5 147.9 68% 76–70 ✗
NJIT @ UMBC +3.8 146.1 65% 75–74 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Lamar +5.9 140.8 73% 64–74 ✓
Queens University @ North Alabama +4.5 157.9 69% 84–90 ✓
Austin Peay @ Florida Gulf Coast +0.1 137.3 51% 67–73 ✓
Montana State @ Portland State +2.0 139.7 61% 91–94 ✓
UCLA @ USC +5.8 134.9 72% 65–50 ✗
Tulsa @ Rice +0.2 146.2 53% 85–83 ✗
LSU @ Alabama +12.6 160.2 87% 88–109 ✓
Massachusetts @ Saint Louis -5.9 151.6 32% 84–73 ✓
VCU @ Davidson +1.5 137.3 58% 63–58 ✗
San Francisco @ Portland -13.8 148.2 14% 76–64 ✓
San Diego @ Pepperdine +3.8 148.6 68% 69–67 ✗
South Dakota @ Kansas City +4.3 148.1 69% 57–81 ✓
South Dakota State @ Oral Roberts +0.4 150.0 53% 82–87 ✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +9.7 139.5 85% 74–64 ✗
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M +4.3 141.6 68% 71–68 ✗
Ohio State @ Northwestern +3.1 139.9 63% 58–83 ✓
UNLV @ San José State -1.3 147.6 46% 77–65 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Fullerton +2.2 129.5 60% 50–68 ✓
Montana @ Sacramento State -7.7 138.9 24% 70–67 ✓
Idaho State @ Weber State +10.6 137.9 86% 74–64 ✗
Utah @ Washington -1.8 155.7 42% 73–98 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Saint Mary's +13.3 131.4 87% 65–70 ✓
Gonzaga @ Pacific -15.0 147.1 13% 82–73 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Irvine +12.6 142.1 88% 72–77 ✓
Cal Poly @ Hawai'i +9.1 128.9 83% 73–83 ✓
Xavier @ UConn +10.1 146.2 83% 56–99 ✓
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis -13.4 161.1 13% 83–76 ✓
Purdue @ Rutgers -12.3 142.2 16% 68–60 ✓
North Texas @ Florida Atlantic +8.4 136.4 80% 63–66 ✓
Marist @ Canisius +2.5 130.3 63% 80–71 ✗
Robert Morris @ Cleveland State +3.8 153.5 71% 64–66 ✓
Texas State @ Louisiana +9.5 140.9 84% 46–66 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Youngstown State +7.2 144.3 79% 52–82 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Siena -10.9 124.8 15% 63–52 ✓
Manhattan @ Niagara +9.6 146.1 84% 84–78 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Fairfield +2.6 149.5 62% 66–64 ✗
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe -3.1 144.1 36% 82–85 ✗
SMU @ Wichita State -7.3 140.1 24% 72–77 ✗
Memphis @ UAB -3.8 156.1 36% 88–97 ✗
Temple @ East Carolina +4.6 134.0 70% 64–70 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.