Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–18 on winners spread MAE 8.7 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Winthrop @ Longwood +1.9 162.2 60% 85–59 ✗
North Texas @ Florida Atlantic +0.0 137.3 38% 71–61 ✗
Wagner @ Long Island University +4.7 122.2 64% 47–60 ✓
Stonehill @ Fairleigh Dickinson +2.4 138.7 67% 69–82 ✓
Chicago State @ Mercyhurst +7.0 140.6 82% 68–90 ✓
Le Moyne @ Central Connecticut +15.1 144.7 88% 75–84 ✓
Maine @ New Hampshire -7.9 136.5 19% 73–66 ✓
Vermont @ NJIT -6.4 129.7 18% 71–61 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Green Bay +1.6 145.9 55% 71–76 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Purdue Fort Wayne +7.6 151.7 77% 79–74 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Campbell -0.2 141.9 45% 79–60 ✓
Elon @ Monmouth -2.3 143.9 46% 76–79 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Northeastern +9.0 141.0 84% 55–69 ✓
Hampton @ Drexel +2.2 133.2 53% 52–53 ✓
William & Mary @ Towson +5.1 141.9 73% 73–88 ✓
Delaware @ Charleston +7.8 157.5 82% 84–94 ✓
Hofstra @ Stony Brook -4.4 133.5 37% 56–59 ✗
Chattanooga @ UNC Greensboro +2.4 139.9 58% 75–63 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Florida International -4.2 138.6 33% 61–76 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Liberty +8.3 130.3 78% 55–59 ✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee +6.1 147.6 77% 66–71 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State -3.5 133.8 37% 52–67 ✗
South Dakota State @ Oral Roberts -10.0 153.6 18% 77–69 ✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +10.4 160.5 85% 71–86 ✓
Denver @ Kansas City +5.3 136.2 67% 56–64 ✓
Western Illinois @ Tennessee Tech +7.1 142.9 75% 82–69 ✗
Southern Indiana @ UT Martin +4.5 145.2 68% 63–79 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ SIU Edwardsville +0.8 139.9 44% 83–68 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee State +6.1 143.7 78% 55–64 ✓
Little Rock @ Eastern Illinois -4.5 129.2 31% 60–71 ✗
Rutgers @ Michigan +11.7 153.1 87% 82–84 ✓
UAB @ Wichita State +2.1 153.9 65% 80–72 ✗
Idaho State @ Idaho +0.1 148.5 51% 69–65 ✗
Weber State @ Eastern Washington +3.9 140.7 67% 66–64 ✗
Cleveland State @ Wright State +0.1 145.2 49% 76–82 ✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Tech +1.8 143.5 58% 82–75 ✗
UT Arlington @ Grand Canyon +10.8 149.2 85% 71–85 ✓
Western Kentucky @ UTEP +2.7 145.6 61% 80–73 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State +1.2 137.6 48% 71–66 ✗
San Diego @ Washington State +12.9 155.6 87% 86–93 ✓
Montana @ Sacramento State -7.1 141.8 22% 60–54 ✓
Montana State @ Portland State +1.9 139.8 60% 52–69 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Northridge -2.6 145.4 36% 77–71 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara +6.3 155.0 75% 77–96 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton -15.5 138.5 12% 76–51 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Long Beach State -2.5 136.8 37% 88–87 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland +1.0 155.0 61% 67–87 ✓
California Baptist @ Seattle U +1.9 139.8 57% 48–72 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Loyola Marymount -10.9 133.7 14% 58–55 ✓
UC Riverside @ Hawai'i -0.9 142.5 46% 82–76 ✓
Brown @ Harvard -0.5 142.7 44% 59–52 ✓
Yale @ Dartmouth -5.4 150.3 28% 72–67 ✓
Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan -1.9 147.3 51% 73–84 ✗
Iona @ Niagara -0.2 140.9 49% 65–63 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.