Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–11 on winners spread MAE 7.8 46 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Illinois @ Texas -0.1 136.9 42% 85–78 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Arkansas +21.7 138.0 90% 58–65 ✓
Milwaukee @ Chattanooga +6.2 145.9 72% 76–88 ✓
Lafayette @ Princeton +14.8 131.9 85% 58–69 ✓
South Carolina State @ Winthrop +6.8 159.4 80% 67–81 ✓
Charleston @ Presbyterian -9.0 142.7 19% 67–62 ✓
UMBC @ Columbia -3.1 148.4 39% 73–66 ✓
East Carolina @ UNC Wilmington +7.2 136.5 73% 61–74 ✓
American University @ Mount St. Mary's +3.4 136.6 63% 69–61 ✗
Saint Louis @ Iona +7.2 149.8 77% 62–84 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Temple +11.6 150.1 85% 60–70 ✓
Bucknell @ La Salle +1.4 138.4 52% 72–82 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ George Mason +10.4 138.3 85% 54–67 ✓
Wagner @ Fordham +9.6 138.1 80% 59–72 ✓
Vermont @ Dartmouth +2.2 142.2 60% 68–52 ✗
High Point @ Furman +5.9 153.9 73% 85–82 ✗
Coppin State @ NC State +17.2 158.8 89% 72–94 ✓
Georgia @ Georgia Tech +5.9 132.7 67% 77–79 ✓
New Hampshire @ Boston College +10.1 128.7 76% 74–71 ✗
Hartford @ St. Francis Brooklyn +10.4 135.9 88% 50–68 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Wofford +9.4 138.5 81% 61–71 ✓
North Florida @ Houston +32.2 133.7 91% 42–76 ✓
James Madison @ Virginia +6.5 143.1 74% 50–55 ✓
Tarleton State @ Baylor +12.6 151.5 85% 57–80 ✓
Jackson State @ TCU +16.4 143.9 88% 51–78 ✓
North Texas @ UT Arlington -5.9 122.9 20% 60–57 ✓
Bradley @ SIU Edwardsville +3.5 135.7 53% 56–54 ✗
Little Rock @ Memphis +23.1 148.8 91% 71–87 ✓
Green Bay @ Loyola Chicago +12.0 133.0 88% 46–70 ✓
Arkansas State @ Central Arkansas +2.8 135.1 56% 67–72 ✓
Kansas City @ Oklahoma +14.2 125.2 86% 53–75 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Kansas State +19.4 140.7 90% 64–81 ✓
Toledo @ Northern Iowa +1.2 153.6 56% 83–75 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Marquette +14.7 149.1 88% 78–90 ✓
Maryland @ Wisconsin -2.2 131.2 57% 59–64 ✗
East Texas A&M @ Wyoming +1.1 136.0 52% 76–91 ✓
Sam Houston @ Oklahoma State +0.6 131.8 64% 51–65 ✓
South Dakota State @ Montana +2.2 138.1 63% 56–81 ✓
North Dakota @ Idaho +6.0 137.9 73% 66–76 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ San José State +4.3 131.5 69% 48–58 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Pacific +9.1 151.4 80% 73–69 ✗
Iowa @ Duke -0.3 144.4 48% 62–74 ✗
Nevada @ Pepperdine +2.5 143.6 60% 85–77 ✗
DePaul @ St. John's +9.9 156.3 82% 67–86 ✓
Siena @ Georgetown +2.3 146.1 59% 68–75 ✓
Michigan State @ Penn State +5.7 142.9 74% 67–58 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.