Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | KSU -1000 ACU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +17 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -22.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -19.3 (-2.3) | 140.0 (+5.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -15.4 (+1.6) | 137.0 (+8.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -17.6 (-0.6) | 140.1 (+4.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -19.4 (-2.4) | 140.7 (+4.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#51) | -8.2 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#22) | -1.73 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#36) | -2.79 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#17) | 0.352 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.0% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
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