Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -700 SCST +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +14 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -10.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -6.6 (+7.4) | 159.5 (-11.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -8.5 (+5.5) | 154.6 (-6.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -6.5 (+7.5) | 158.5 (-10.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -6.8 (+7.2) | 159.4 (-11.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | WIN 101 – 79 SCST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-12 |
| Home | 10-4 | 4-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 84.7 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#281) | -11.0 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#266) | -0.57 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#229) | -0.76 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#220) | 0.464 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.6% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 35.0% | 13.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 62.4% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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