Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | FOR -350 WAG +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +13 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -10.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -9.5 (+3.5) | 139.4 (-8.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | FOR -7.4 (+5.6) | 135.5 (-4.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | FOR -9.1 (+3.9) | 138.7 (-7.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -9.6 (+3.4) | 138.1 (-7.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | FOR 63 – 61 WAG |
| Nov 7, 2023 | FOR 68 – 64 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 18-2 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 61.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 62.3 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#155) | -3.8 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#42) | 0.01 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#53) | -0.54 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#52) | 0.473 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 39.9% |
Game Analysis
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