Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ -8000 NCCU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +12 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -17.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -15.7 (-3.7) | 148.1 (+19.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -17.2 (-5.2) | 149.2 (+18.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -15.7 (-3.7) | 149.3 (+18.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -14.7 (-2.7) | 149.1 (+18.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-4 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#20) | 1.5 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#75) | -0.51 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#57) | -0.58 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#59) | 0.476 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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