Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +16 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -25.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -19.5 (-3.5) | 148.0 (+10.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -23.3 (-7.3) | 149.0 (+9.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -24.0 (-8.0) | 147.7 (+10.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -23.1 (-7.1) | 148.8 (+9.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 80.9 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#42) | -10.1 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#44) | -2.50 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.67 (#20) | -4.33 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#16) | 0.355 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 59.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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