Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -111 IOWA -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -0.9 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -0.4 (+12.4) | 143.9 (-7.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -0.8 (+11.2) | 141.1 (-5.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -0.3 (+12.3) | 143.3 (-7.3) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -0.3 (+12.3) | 144.4 (-8.4) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#25) | 13.7 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#38) | 1.90 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#35) | 2.75 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#23) | 0.619 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 41.0% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 11.9% |
Game Analysis
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