Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU -400 CSUB +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +10 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -4.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -4.7 (+5.3) | 129.3 (-23.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -3.6 (+6.4) | 126.6 (-20.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -3.8 (+6.2) | 132.3 (-26.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -4.3 (+5.7) | 131.5 (-25.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-3 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 59.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#241) | -3.0 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#110) | 0.23 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#120) | 0.08 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#153) | 0.466 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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