Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -1200 UMES +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +13 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -13.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -10.6 (+2.4) | 135.6 (-14.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -13.5 (-0.5) | 135.2 (-14.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -10.3 (+2.7) | 137.4 (-16.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -10.4 (+2.6) | 138.3 (-17.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-5 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 68.9 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#183) | -8.5 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#161) | -0.55 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#183) | -0.87 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#70) | 0.497 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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