Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -31.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +34 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -35.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -33.4 (+0.6) | 137.4 (-19.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -28.8 (+5.2) | 134.0 (-16.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -25.3 (+8.7) | 135.5 (-17.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -32.2 (+1.8) | 133.7 (-15.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 11-0 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 23.5 (#1) | -6.8 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#9) | -0.37 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.94 (#7) | -0.22 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.652 (#12) | 0.490 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 35.6% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.3% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 61.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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