Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TEX -175 ILL +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +7 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | TEX -0.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -0.3 (-7.3) | 139.6 (+23.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -0.2 (-6.8) | 136.4 (+26.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -0.2 (-6.8) | 135.2 (+27.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -0.1 (-6.9) | 136.9 (+26.1) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 17-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#6) | 16.5 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#14) | 2.14 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.50 (#11) | 3.54 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.649 (#13) | 0.569 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.1% | 42.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.0% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.