Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -2000 GB +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +24 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -15.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -10.6 (+13.4) | 132.4 (-16.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -16.6 (+7.4) | 129.7 (-13.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -10.9 (+13.1) | 133.4 (-17.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -12.0 (+12.0) | 133.0 (-17.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 2-18 |
| Home | 6-8 | 2-10 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 59.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#280) | -15.8 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#271) | -3.16 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#266) | -4.58 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#259) | 0.386 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | GB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 27.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 26.9% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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