Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–13 on winners spread MAE 7.7 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Minnesota -7.0 146.4 22% 88–73 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky +13.5 144.0 88% 70–77 ✓
Butler @ Xavier +12.4 132.5 87% 66–68 ✓
American University @ Lafayette +3.3 134.5 66% 62–71 ✓
Army @ Loyola Maryland +3.0 138.5 65% 57–61 ✓
Bucknell @ Colgate +14.1 147.2 88% 69–83 ✓
Temple @ East Carolina -1.0 138.8 45% 71–63 ✓
Navy @ Lehigh -5.2 134.1 30% 62–63 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Hampton -2.6 139.0 36% 85–78 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point -1.3 131.8 47% 65–57 ✓
Campbell @ Presbyterian -1.6 129.2 45% 58–64 ✗
Notre Dame @ Miami +4.6 142.0 70% 68–64 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest +14.0 140.3 88% 75–91 ✓
Florida State @ Clemson +3.9 143.9 68% 69–75 ✓
NJIT @ Vermont +17.9 138.7 90% 67–90 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Maine -8.9 131.0 18% 62–50 ✓
UMBC @ UAlbany -0.1 134.6 44% 59–53 ✓
Hartford @ New Hampshire +3.8 138.3 61% 64–70 ✓
Binghamton @ Stony Brook +6.4 142.7 72% 77–61 ✗
Drake @ Indiana State -3.0 144.1 37% 85–67 ✓
La Salle @ George Washington +1.0 137.1 58% 87–89 ✓
Saint Louis @ George Mason +0.5 138.9 47% 92–90 ✗
Rhode Island @ Fordham -2.2 130.2 41% 55–61 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Western Carolina -3.5 148.3 39% 84–87 ✗
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +0.7 142.0 53% 76–65 ✗
The Citadel @ Furman +15.1 151.8 88% 83–102 ✓
Arkansas @ Georgia -8.4 152.6 18% 99–73 ✓
Coppin State @ Delaware State -11.5 136.1 13% 59–57 ✓
Tulane @ Houston +17.3 138.6 89% 62–73 ✓
Lamar @ UT Rio Grande Valley +7.8 149.0 66% 79–93 ✓
Bradley @ Northern Iowa +1.4 141.4 59% 65–78 ✓
Illinois State @ Loyola Chicago +14.1 150.4 86% 64–78 ✓
Chattanooga @ Samford -6.8 143.8 27% 72–80 ✗
Wisconsin @ Illinois +4.6 140.5 72% 67–80 ✓
Syracuse @ NC State -0.3 157.2 50% 89–82 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech +11.8 139.7 85% 66–81 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State +1.2 131.1 58% 68–71 ✓
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois -3.0 132.9 35% 69–54 ✓
Dayton @ VCU +3.4 124.8 62% 82–52 ✗
Villanova @ Marquette -1.3 134.5 57% 73–83 ✗
Liberty @ Bellarmine -1.1 134.8 45% 66–53 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Ohio +14.2 142.7 88% 68–81 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State +9.4 138.3 82% 68–75 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Eastern Kentucky +2.3 150.6 59% 81–82 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ UT Martin -0.2 155.1 56% 63–84 ✗
Murray State @ Austin Peay -11.3 137.6 15% 65–53 ✓
St. John's @ Georgetown -4.1 154.4 33% 90–77 ✓
App State @ Texas State +1.5 131.5 58% 66–68 ✓
Drexel @ Delaware +3.5 141.8 62% 76–68 ✗
Louisiana @ Little Rock -4.4 143.3 32% 75–51 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.