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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–5 on winners
spread MAE 7.7
30 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-1.3 | 142.9 | 51% | 70–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.7 | 139.7 | 36% | 65–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 137.6 | 86% | 80–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 135.3 | 67% | 65–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.5 | 139.3 | 25% | 74–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 141.8 | 55% | 81–76 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.4 | 140.5 | 43% | 75–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.0 | 147.1 | 87% | 63–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.6 | 150.7 | 21% | 86–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.2 | 157.0 | 34% | 74–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.2 | 141.3 | 46% | 78–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.9 | 140.1 | 75% | 64–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 134.4 | 67% | 78–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 145.0 | 39% | 90–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.6 | 150.9 | 21% | 70–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 159.9 | 82% | 81–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 128.5 | 77% | 64–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.5 | 144.9 | 44% | 86–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.2 | 132.4 | 86% | 76–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.0 | 140.1 | 77% | 48–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.4 | 130.2 | 87% | 46–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.3 | 148.2 | 88% | 79–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.6 | 135.1 | 76% | 50–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 130.8 | 73% | 65–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.6 | 146.2 | 74% | 58–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.5 | 132.3 | 16% | 73–43 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 136.7 | 28% | 66–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.9 | 145.9 | 87% | 73–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 143.3 | 39% | 56–48 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 132.7 | 82% | 52–64 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.