Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–12 on winners spread MAE 8.2 29 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Notre Dame -3.9 144.2 36% 57–43 ✓
Kansas City @ Western Illinois +5.2 143.3 72% 83–75 ✗
Liberty @ Kennesaw State -3.0 137.8 34% 65–50 ✓
Hartford @ Maine -6.2 138.6 22% 78–66 ✓
UAlbany @ Vermont +15.2 135.0 87% 61–73 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah +10.7 153.1 85% 66–78 ✓
Drexel @ UNC Wilmington +1.1 143.0 62% 63–70 ✓
Holy Cross @ Boston University +14.5 137.7 87% 75–70 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee Tech -3.6 143.0 38% 70–56 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Austin Peay +2.7 139.1 64% 63–68 ✓
Wofford @ Mercer -3.5 140.7 36% 62–67 ✗
Iowa @ Penn State -3.6 140.3 36% 86–90 ✗
Howard @ South Carolina State -6.2 154.0 30% 55–58 ✗
Morgan State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +6.6 140.8 74% 72–79 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota -17.2 163.0 13% 70–64 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama A&M -0.2 125.8 43% 52–67 ✗
Colorado State @ Wyoming +3.7 145.3 71% 78–84 ✓
Southern @ Jackson State -4.8 132.8 29% 75–64 ✓
Grambling @ Alcorn State +5.7 140.9 72% 80–73 ✗
West Virginia @ Baylor +13.3 139.5 88% 77–81 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Weber State +7.2 155.8 80% 84–90 ✓
Norfolk State @ North Carolina Central -3.0 142.1 36% 67–70 ✗
Florida A&M @ Alabama State +1.3 139.1 44% 66–65 ✗
Pacific @ Santa Clara +13.8 147.5 85% 59–81 ✓
TCU @ Oklahoma +4.7 130.3 68% 72–63 ✗
New Mexico @ San Diego State +11.9 141.2 86% 47–72 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Portland State -3.9 152.4 38% 76–79 ✗
Boston College @ Virginia +6.8 124.8 75% 55–67 ✓
Creighton @ UConn +10.5 140.1 85% 59–55 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.