And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
← All models

Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
40–10 on winners spread MAE 8.1 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alabama A&M @ Samford +13.7 143.7 87% 50–52 ✓
Marshall @ Eastern Kentucky +3.9 160.8 65% 80–69 ✗
UC Irvine @ Fresno State +1.5 123.6 52% 55–63 ✓
Radford @ James Madison +7.8 131.1 77% 70–79 ✓
Norfolk State @ Wichita State +11.7 136.6 84% 58–71 ✓
Drexel @ Abilene Christian +10.1 151.3 80% 56–73 ✓
New Mexico State @ Loyola Marymount +1.3 146.1 56% 63–58 ✗
Columbia @ UAlbany +6.3 134.5 74% 59–60 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Wake Forest +21.7 146.5 90% 53–79 ✓
Liberty @ Stephen F. Austin -2.5 136.6 36% 51–63 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Robert Morris -4.9 151.5 31% 85–74 ✓
VCU @ Old Dominion -2.0 123.8 37% 75–66 ✓
Montana State @ St. Thomas +2.7 150.1 55% 72–65 ✗
Rice @ Houston Christian -6.3 145.8 21% 88–73 ✓
Elon @ North Carolina +25.3 154.5 91% 63–80 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Omaha -8.7 140.0 16% 87–73 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Ole Miss +2.6 138.0 62% 71–48 ✗
Cincinnati @ Xavier +9.2 134.6 83% 63–83 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ UT Martin -5.5 144.7 37% 84–75 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Utah State +16.5 149.6 87% 50–82 ✓
Santa Clara @ California +1.0 143.2 54% 60–72 ✓
Denver @ Utah Tech +2.1 152.1 63% 62–82 ✓
UCLA @ Marquette -0.1 151.7 52% 67–56 ✓
Houston @ Alabama +4.4 146.2 70% 82–83 ✓
Cal Poly @ Portland State +2.5 129.8 52% 61–58 ✗
Idaho @ Cal State Bakersfield +11.5 142.8 84% 58–59 ✓
Utah Valley @ Wyoming +9.5 140.4 81% 62–74 ✓
Miami @ Fordham -1.2 144.7 46% 72–66 ✓
Merrimack @ Indiana +19.1 132.9 88% 49–81 ✓
Colgate @ St. John's +8.1 157.9 78% 64–82 ✓
Florida State @ South Carolina -2.2 137.9 40% 65–66 ✗
Jackson State @ Iowa State +19.5 127.4 89% 37–47 ✓
Davidson @ Northeastern -1.1 133.9 40% 79–69 ✓
Fairfield @ William & Mary -9.4 142.2 17% 70–47 ✓
Purdue @ NC State -14.6 153.6 14% 82–72 ✓
Wofford @ Coastal Carolina +0.7 142.8 55% 59–60 ✓
Hampton @ Loyola Maryland +9.6 130.6 79% 54–67 ✓
Presbyterian @ Charleston +10.9 146.2 79% 76–78 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Dayton +0.6 132.1 58% 57–62 ✓
Navy @ Marist -0.1 134.4 45% 67–61 ✓
Florida A&M @ Akron +9.7 130.5 80% 66–73 ✓
Villanova @ Baylor +8.9 137.4 77% 36–57 ✓
Kansas City @ SIU Edwardsville +2.4 138.1 63% 56–60 ✓
UTEP @ New Mexico +7.8 146.0 75% 77–69 ✗
Kent State @ West Virginia +9.6 131.3 81% 50–63 ✓
NJIT @ Northwestern +18.7 141.2 89% 52–70 ✓
Florida @ Maryland -7.6 135.0 22% 68–70 ✗
Long Beach State @ USC +26.4 146.9 91% 62–73 ✓
Tennessee State @ Lipscomb +10.4 145.1 76% 73–65 ✗
Green Bay @ Kansas State +17.7 130.3 86% 64–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.