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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
36–19 on winners
spread MAE 9.2
55 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+5.3 | 147.5 | 73% | 40–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.0 | 139.4 | 90% | 61–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.2 | 153.6 | 30% | 84–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.0 | 165.5 | 75% | 80–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 134.9 | 69% | 71–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.7 | 145.7 | 84% | 70–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.2 | 144.5 | 74% | 78–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.5 | 133.8 | 45% | 63–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.5 | 141.0 | 64% | 67–56 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.0 | 136.6 | 44% | 79–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.9 | 144.1 | 75% | 63–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.3 | 151.1 | 81% | 73–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.9 | 143.9 | 22% | 78–51 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 153.5 | 48% | 72–89 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.5 | 149.7 | 79% | 62–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 148.3 | 40% | 74–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.7 | 159.0 | 34% | 81–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 155.6 | 49% | 74–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.3 | 149.5 | 84% | 72–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.8 | 153.4 | 37% | 78–84 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.5 | 163.2 | 48% | 96–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 167.7 | 75% | 84–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.8 | 148.7 | 91% | 64–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.0 | 150.0 | 32% | 90–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 144.8 | 77% | 71–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 143.3 | 85% | 55–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.2 | 159.1 | 16% | 75–56 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.6 | 147.1 | 35% | 82–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 136.9 | 77% | 67–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 146.1 | 54% | 65–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.1 | 152.2 | 75% | 66–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.0 | 153.6 | 87% | 54–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 149.0 | 70% | 93–88 | ✗ |
|
|
+27.1 | 150.1 | 91% | 48–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.8 | 169.4 | 88% | 75–100 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.6 | 139.3 | 24% | 87–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 161.2 | 76% | 70–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 142.0 | 75% | 57–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.7 | 151.0 | 80% | 67–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 141.2 | 71% | 72–71 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.2 | 151.6 | 52% | 106–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.7 | 171.7 | 75% | 84–99 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 148.1 | 49% | 68–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.2 | 146.0 | 75% | 82–92 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 160.5 | 44% | 69–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.0 | 150.0 | 26% | 71–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.1 | 147.5 | 62% | 66–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 148.1 | 70% | 67–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 146.2 | 55% | 72–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.6 | 140.0 | 32% | 85–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 141.3 | 55% | 76–94 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.1 | 138.9 | 41% | 63–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.0 | 135.6 | 88% | 58–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 144.6 | 50% | 76–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.7 | 131.2 | 60% | 70–59 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.