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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–21 on winners spread MAE 8.7 55 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Wichita State @ Memphis	+16.5	159.0	93%	53–61	✓
Bryant @ New Hampshire	-14.2	149.2	10%	95–76	✓
NJIT @ Vermont	+11.6	114.3	85%	64–68	✓
Marshall @ Georgia State	-4.6	147.8	34%	92–79	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Charleston	+2.8	154.2	60%	85–83	✗
Campbell @ Stony Brook	-3.5	136.1	38%	79–54	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Towson	+10.3	143.5	83%	67–83	✓
Delaware @ Hofstra	+4.0	143.4	64%	68–93	✓
Drexel @ Northeastern	+2.8	134.3	60%	61–70	✓
Monmouth @ Elon	+12.8	137.1	88%	71–83	✓
North Florida @ Queens University	+5.9	168.9	71%	90–81	✗
Lipscomb @ North Alabama	-2.8	143.9	40%	64–74	✗
Jacksonville @ West Georgia	-8.1	139.2	23%	79–62	✓
Stetson @ Eastern Kentucky	+14.5	157.7	91%	67–66	✗
Samford @ Chattanooga	-0.5	166.1	48%	73–69	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Siena	+4.9	139.2	67%	68–82	✓
Merrimack @ Saint Peter's	+0.8	115.9	53%	48–37	✗
Iona @ Rider	+0.5	134.5	52%	73–67	✗
Sacred Heart @ Canisius	-5.0	153.4	32%	93–84	✓
Fairfield @ Manhattan	+8.3	156.9	77%	87–84	✗
Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech	+3.9	146.1	64%	67–77	✓
Austin Peay @ Central Arkansas	+0.0	136.5	50%	73–71	✗
Middle Tennessee @ Sam Houston	-2.2	158.4	42%	77–75	✓
Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian	+6.1	124.2	71%	56–67	✓
Seattle U @ UT Arlington	-1.1	150.5	46%	56–65	✗
South Dakota @ North Dakota	+1.7	180.4	56%	102–93	✗
South Dakota State @ Kansas City	-4.2	141.6	35%	65–64	✓
Denver @ Oral Roberts	+4.5	155.1	66%	70–68	✗
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Omaha	-3.2	157.7	38%	78–89	✗
Grand Canyon @ Southern Utah	-7.0	152.2	26%	74–59	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Tennessee State	+3.4	154.9	62%	77–89	✓
Southern Indiana @ SIU Edwardsville	+8.5	137.2	78%	76–82	✓
Little Rock @ Western Illinois	-4.7	128.5	33%	62–51	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Lindenwood	-2.1	141.6	42%	68–72	✗
Maryland @ Illinois	+8.3	157.3	78%	91–70	✗
Northern Colorado @ Idaho	-2.7	161.3	40%	76–77	✗
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington	+3.6	148.5	63%	70–61	✗
App State @ Arkansas State	+5.9	133.9	70%	55–65	✓
Hawai'i @ UC Davis	+0.2	134.8	51%	66–68	✓
San Francisco @ Saint Mary's	+9.3	136.9	80%	51–71	✓
Morehead State @ Eastern Illinois	-1.6	133.7	44%	73–66	✓
Kennesaw State @ New Mexico State	+7.4	147.9	75%	69–56	✗
Jacksonville State @ UTEP	+4.2	142.7	65%	73–66	✗
Pepperdine @ Oregon State	+16.3	144.9	93%	63–83	✓
Idaho State @ Sacramento State	-7.8	126.5	24%	71–75	✗
Weber State @ Portland State	+5.6	143.5	69%	56–74	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC San Diego	+11.6	135.0	85%	63–77	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Fullerton	-3.5	140.7	37%	71–68	✓
UC Irvine @ UC Riverside	-8.4	140.4	22%	80–84	✗
Long Beach State @ Cal State Northridge	+18.0	148.6	95%	76–86	✓
San Diego @ Portland	+1.7	149.2	56%	82–92	✓
Loyola Marymount @ Pacific	-4.6	140.8	34%	73–68	✓
Washington State @ Santa Clara	+6.3	160.5	72%	65–93	✓
Utah Valley @ California Baptist	+0.9	143.0	53%	74–69	✗
Toledo @ Bowling Green	-0.1	161.0	50%	84–71	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.