Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | SHSU +110 MTSU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SHSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +2 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -2.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -1.6 (-0.4) | 149.1 (+2.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -2.8 (+0.8) | 150.1 (+1.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -3.2 (+1.2) | 150.9 (+1.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -2.7 (+0.7) | 151.0 (+1.0) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SHSU 78 – 70 MTSU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MTSU 68 – 67 SHSU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MTSU 74 – 70 SHSU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SHSU 81 – 64 MTSU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | SHSU 60 – 51 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SHSU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#189) | 4.3 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#207) | 1.27 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#186) | 1.25 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#195) | 0.589 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SHSU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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