Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | NE -165 DREX +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +9 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | NE -3.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -2.1 (+6.9) | 132.2 (-1.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NE -1.4 (+7.6) | 130.3 (+0.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NE -2.0 (+7.0) | 131.6 (-0.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NE -2.1 (+6.9) | 132.6 (-1.6) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | DREX 84 – 77 NE |
| Feb 20, 2026 | DREX 70 – 61 NE |
| Jan 24, 2026 | DREX 83 – 78 NE |
| Mar 2, 2024 | DREX 73 – 59 NE |
| Feb 24, 2023 | DREX 75 – 48 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#191) | -1.9 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#177) | -0.35 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#187) | -0.46 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#158) | 0.473 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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