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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–17 on winners spread MAE 9.9 54 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Long Island University @ Miami	+20.6	152.8	97%	49–97	✓
Penn State @ Maryland	+5.0	132.7	68%	75–81	✓
Florida A&M @ Presbyterian	+15.4	140.9	92%	65–60	✗
Campbell @ Davidson	+16.2	129.7	93%	50–62	✓
Wofford @ Gardner-Webb	+9.8	154.3	81%	81–66	✗
Valparaiso @ Central Michigan	+4.2	137.3	65%	67–71	✓
Bryant @ Siena	-16.4	126.9	7%	67–51	✓
Robert Morris @ Canisius	+13.1	144.4	88%	80–87	✓
Vermont @ Northeastern	+2.4	138.9	58%	73–71	✗
Wagner @ Coppin State	-4.8	120.1	33%	62–59	✓
NJIT @ Fordham	+21.6	137.5	98%	80–77	✗
Youngstown State @ Ohio	+6.9	153.6	73%	78–72	✗
Ball State @ Detroit Mercy	-0.0	129.8	50%	68–65	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ NC State	+27.1	150.2	99%	61–93	✓
Old Dominion @ William & Mary	+3.1	156.5	61%	79–84	✓
Duquesne @ Marshall	-4.0	156.2	36%	85–72	✓
Hofstra @ Iona	-1.2	153.9	46%	62–57	✓
Massachusetts @ Towson	-6.3	130.8	28%	71–81	✗
Sacred Heart @ St. John's	+16.9	156.4	94%	50–85	✓
Toledo @ Oakland	+5.5	152.9	69%	69–68	✗
Brown @ Rhode Island	+7.3	148.3	75%	67–64	✗
Miami (OH) @ Ohio State	+21.7	144.1	98%	64–84	✓
Maine @ Boston University	+3.9	120.5	64%	74–65	✗
American University @ Saint Joseph's	+19.4	142.7	96%	53–69	✓
Fairfield @ Yale	+16.2	153.2	93%	75–71	✗
Memphis @ VCU	+3.4	139.6	62%	85–80	✗
Jacksonville @ UCF	+16.5	148.9	93%	52–94	✓
St. Bonaventure @ Niagara	-5.0	144.1	33%	94–60	✓
New Hampshire @ Dartmouth	-6.6	137.7	27%	64–76	✗
Rice @ Houston	+32.6	133.5	100%	39–75	✓
Texas @ Marquette	+12.7	146.9	88%	65–86	✓
South Carolina @ Clemson	+8.8	140.2	79%	67–72	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+12.5	148.8	87%	76–74	✗
Milwaukee @ St. Thomas	+16.0	138.2	93%	71–75	✓
San Francisco @ Vanderbilt	-9.6	132.9	19%	73–60	✓
Saint Louis @ Drake	+19.1	161.7	96%	69–75	✓
Green Bay @ SIU Edwardsville	+3.0	120.4	61%	69–78	✓
Richmond @ Northern Iowa	-2.0	146.8	43%	73–78	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Southern Indiana	-9.8	149.4	19%	70–57	✓
Northern Arizona @ Abilene Christian	+8.7	135.1	79%	78–76	✗
Omaha @ Texas Tech	+13.2	140.1	88%	58–87	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Illinois State	+5.6	128.8	70%	59–62	✓
Lipscomb @ Belmont	+5.5	164.4	69%	71–72	✓
Denver @ Colorado State	+22.2	164.0	98%	80–90	✓
DePaul @ Texas A&M	+23.1	147.2	98%	64–89	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ New Mexico	+18.6	163.1	95%	61–84	✓
Nebraska @ Minnesota	+3.4	146.0	62%	65–76	✓
San Diego @ Utah State	+18.5	139.3	95%	81–108	✓
UC Davis @ Nevada	+21.2	138.6	97%	68–80	✓
Pittsburgh @ West Virginia	-4.1	136.8	35%	80–63	✓
SMU @ Arizona State	+1.7	132.4	56%	74–76	✓
UC Riverside @ Washington State	+18.4	136.0	95%	49–86	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Pepperdine	+11.0	139.8	84%	60–55	✗
Utah Tech @ California Baptist	+11.4	141.3	85%	72–69	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.