Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | VAN +118 SF -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +13 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -9.8 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -6.7 (-6.3) | 132.7 (+0.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -6.6 (-6.4) | 134.7 (-1.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -6.3 (-6.7) | 135.2 (-2.2) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -6.3 (-6.7) | 133.3 (-0.3) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-5 |
| Home | 8-10 | 14-2 |
| Away | 1-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#302) | 8.7 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#240) | 1.05 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#247) | 1.88 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#238) | 0.586 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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