Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Under |
| Money | MARQ -365 TEX +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +21 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -13.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -11.0 (+10.0) | 144.1 (+6.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -12.2 (+8.8) | 145.3 (+5.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -13.8 (+7.2) | 146.4 (+4.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -13.9 (+7.1) | 147.0 (+4.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 16.1 (#11) | 8.8 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#11) | 1.51 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.18 (#9) | 2.23 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.666 (#8) | 0.582 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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