Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -2.0 Push |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | ASU -150 SMU +126 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +2 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -2.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -3.9 (-1.9) | 138.5 (+11.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -3.5 (-1.5) | 134.3 (+15.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -3.5 (-1.5) | 134.5 (+15.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -3.5 (-1.5) | 135.6 (+14.4) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2022 | ASU 75 – 57 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#111) | 6.9 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#72) | 0.28 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#60) | 0.68 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#53) | 0.515 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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