Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | SMU +185 ASU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +18 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | ASU -8.7 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -6.0 (-12.0) | 135.0 (-3.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -6.3 (-11.7) | 132.9 (-0.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -7.2 (-10.8) | 133.1 (-1.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -6.8 (-11.2) | 135.6 (-3.6) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2023 | ASU 76 – 74 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-9 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-11 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 68.0 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#255) | 9.6 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#308) | 2.34 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#274) | 3.93 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#317) | 0.611 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 38.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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