Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | NE +110 UVM -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +2 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | NE -3.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -3.1 (-5.1) | 139.6 (+4.4) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -0.9 (-1.1) | 136.0 (+8.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NE -2.0 (-4.0) | 137.0 (+7.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NE -2.2 (-4.2) | 140.5 (+3.5) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | UVM 85 – 74 NE |
| Nov 30, 2024 | UVM 68 – 64 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-1 |
| Home | 7-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-13 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 63.8 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#184) | 1.7 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#163) | 1.54 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#149) | 1.99 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#133) | 0.562 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 33.4% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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