Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ILST -138 NKU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +3 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -5.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -2.1 (+0.9) | 133.6 (-12.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -3.6 (-0.6) | 133.5 (-12.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -3.6 (-0.6) | 134.6 (-13.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -3.9 (-0.9) | 134.0 (-13.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#193) | -0.1 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#120) | -0.03 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#98) | -0.25 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#168) | 0.476 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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