Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -7000 SHU +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +35 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -15.6 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -16.4 (+18.6) | 151.1 (-16.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -13.9 (+21.1) | 149.8 (-14.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -14.4 (+20.6) | 148.3 (-13.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -14.9 (+20.1) | 150.7 (-15.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#77) | -3.8 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#93) | -1.14 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#117) | -1.61 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#93) | 0.393 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 17.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 44.9% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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