He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
John J. Lee Amphitheater · December 7, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread YALE -17.5 Away covered
O/U 142.5 Over
Money YALE -3300 / FAIR +1900
Model Predictions
Spread Total YALE win
Actual FAIR +4 146 Lost
Massey YALE -16.2 (-20.2)
Massey Totals 153.4 (-7.4)
Bradley-Terry 99%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML YALE -11.4 (-15.4) 148.9 (-2.9) 80%
Baseline ML YALE -11.9 (-15.9) 147.1 (-1.1) 82%
Baseline Tuned ML YALE -11.7 (-15.7) 147.3 (-1.3) 85%
Efficiency Plus ML YALE -14.0 (-18.0) 149.6 (-3.6) 83%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 23, 2024 YALE 9166 FAIR
Dec 13, 2022 YALE 7764 FAIR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings YALE FAIR
Overall 23-10 24-13
Conference 11-3 14-6
Home 9-2 10-4
Away 9-6 10-6
Neutral 5-2 4-3
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.2 75.1
Avg Pts Against 68.9 71.7
Massey 3.3 (#119) -7.2 (#304)
Bradley-Terry 0.87 (#103) -2.54 (#330)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.17 (#110) -3.92 (#339)
RPI 0.527 (#128) 0.380 (#331)
Shooting & Four Factors YALE FAIR
FG% 43.4% 41.4%
3PT% 35.0% 32.6%
REB / G 34.1 32.4
OREB / G 9.0 10.1
AST / TO 1.32 0.86
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.2% 48.0%
TOV% 13.3% 18.5%
ORB% 25.8% 26.5%
FT Rate 22.0% 20.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.0% 53.7%
Opp TOV% 15.6% 20.0%
DRB% 72.6% 61.7%
Opp FT Rate 20.8% 20.4%

Game Analysis

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