Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR +170 YALE -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +13 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | YALE -10.1 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.0 (+20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -8.2 (-4.8) | 127.9 (+13.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -7.7 (-5.3) | 128.6 (+12.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -7.1 (-5.9) | 129.0 (+12.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -7.5 (-5.5) | 128.3 (+12.7) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2024 | YALE 91 – 66 FAIR |
| Dec 7, 2023 | FAIR 75 – 71 YALE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-4 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-1 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 64.3 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#253) | 11.1 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#270) | 1.17 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#274) | 1.60 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#283) | 0.540 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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