Taking a bite on a biscuit, the record jumps on a scratch. "If I Didn't Love You" - Squeeze
Leo D. Mahoney Arena · December 13, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread YALE -3.5 Away covered
O/U 125.5 Over
Money FAIR +170 / YALE -163
Model Predictions
Spread Total FAIR win
Actual YALE +13 141 Lost
Massey YALE -10.1 (-2.9)
Massey Totals 121.0 (+20.0)
Bradley-Terry 23%
Weighted B-T 13%
Baseline Plus ML YALE -8.2 (-4.8) 127.9 (+13.1) 20%
Baseline ML YALE -7.7 (-5.3) 128.6 (+12.4) 18%
Baseline Tuned ML YALE -7.1 (-5.9) 129.0 (+12.0) 20%
Efficiency Plus ML YALE -7.5 (-5.5) 128.3 (+12.7) 20%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 23, 2024 YALE 9166 FAIR
Dec 7, 2023 FAIR 7571 YALE

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FAIR YALE
Overall 13-18 21-9
Conference 9-11 10-4
Home 7-6 10-1
Away 4-10 8-7
Neutral 2-2 3-1
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 64.2 73.8
Avg Pts Against 66.7 64.3
Massey -4.3 (#253) 11.1 (#36)
Bradley-Terry -1.05 (#270) 1.17 (#89)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.53 (#274) 1.60 (#90)
RPI 0.428 (#283) 0.540 (#111)
Shooting & Four Factors FAIR YALE
FG% 39.5% 45.6%
3PT% 27.4% 33.6%
REB / G 34.5 36.7
OREB / G 9.8 9.6
AST / TO 0.66 1.21
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.3% 52.3%
TOV% 19.3% 17.0%
ORB% 28.2% 28.8%
FT Rate 27.8% 14.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.3% 45.3%
Opp TOV% 17.4% 19.3%
DRB% 73.5% 77.7%
Opp FT Rate 21.7% 20.5%

Game Analysis

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