Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -31.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +48 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -20.9 (+27.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -21.3 (+26.7) | 151.5 (-5.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -16.6 (+31.4) | 149.4 (-3.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -17.9 (+30.1) | 148.4 (-2.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -19.8 (+28.2) | 149.3 (-3.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 7-22 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L10 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#67) | -8.5 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#46) | -1.56 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#57) | -2.11 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.649 (#13) | 0.379 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 42.6% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.8% | 34.1% |
Game Analysis
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