Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Under |
| Money | UNM -1100 UCSB +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +23 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -19.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -14.9 (+8.1) | 152.9 (-7.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -17.1 (+5.9) | 156.7 (-11.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -16.7 (+6.3) | 156.9 (-11.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -18.4 (+4.6) | 156.6 (-11.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#20) | -0.7 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#65) | 0.30 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#74) | 0.07 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#89) | 0.490 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 51.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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