And Harry doesn't mind if he doesn't make the scene. "Sultans of Swing" - Dire Straits
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–9 on winners spread MAE 10.7 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Providence @ Oklahoma +11.2 144.1 85% 51–72 ✓
Wisconsin @ Michigan State +4.7 129.7 67% 70–57 ✗
Stetson @ Charlotte +11.3 128.2 85% 62–85 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Kennesaw State +9.6 171.3 81% 76–79 ✓
Lafayette @ Columbia +15.4 130.3 92% 72–83 ✓
Bradley @ Akron +3.0 140.1 61% 52–67 ✓
Drexel @ Princeton +14.3 118.0 90% 70–81 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Liberty +34.1 137.1 100% 39–74 ✓
Western Carolina @ High Point +3.3 157.6 62% 71–97 ✓
Western Michigan @ Notre Dame +6.5 121.8 72% 65–86 ✓
Navy @ George Washington +18.4 137.5 95% 77–79 ✓
Merrimack @ Florida +15.3 152.8 92% 57–77 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Virginia +19.0 121.8 96% 47–77 ✓
Villanova @ Kansas State +1.6 151.0 56% 71–72 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Stephen F. Austin +2.2 138.2 58% 56–49 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Georgia +6.3 138.5 72% 62–76 ✓
Missouri State @ Middle Tennessee -3.9 121.9 36% 73–77 ✗
Kansas City @ Kansas +24.7 143.8 99% 69–88 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Ole Miss +11.6 134.5 85% 68–77 ✓
Indiana State @ Northern Illinois -0.7 170.9 47% 90–67 ✓
Cornell @ Syracuse +2.3 167.6 58% 70–81 ✓
Weber State @ Utah Valley -1.2 121.4 46% 54–70 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Tulsa +4.9 132.6 67% 77–88 ✓
Buffalo @ Butler +33.5 152.3 100% 59–72 ✓
North Carolina @ UConn +4.6 160.7 66% 76–87 ✓
Seton Hall @ Baylor +17.2 154.8 94% 60–78 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Gonzaga +28.7 169.9 100% 71–111 ✓
Evansville @ BYU +24.7 158.4 99% 55–96 ✓
San Diego State @ Grand Canyon +0.6 153.9 52% 73–79 ✓
North Texas @ Boise State +2.2 126.8 58% 64–69 ✓
Indiana @ Michigan +10.7 150.9 84% 78–75 ✗
Southern Utah @ Utah +21.2 158.5 97% 86–88 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Southern Illinois +10.9 135.1 84% 68–70 ✓
Pacific @ Idaho +11.2 140.7 84% 53–83 ✓
Kent State @ South Dakota State +3.9 153.3 64% 82–73 ✗
Cleveland State @ Saint Mary's +8.9 130.9 79% 57–70 ✓
Idaho State @ Fresno State -0.9 133.0 47% 67–79 ✗
Montana State @ Washington +17.9 144.0 95% 61–85 ✓
South Alabama @ Mercer +10.2 144.5 82% 83–62 ✗
UMBC @ Morgan State -2.0 172.3 43% 80–92 ✗
Rutgers @ Wake Forest +1.2 138.1 55% 57–76 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ La Salle +12.1 154.9 86% 61–62 ✓
Stonehill @ Stony Brook +13.5 144.0 89% 63–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.