Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | OU -215 PROV +178 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +21 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | OU -11.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -11.2 (+9.8) | 147.1 (-24.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -10.2 (+10.8) | 144.3 (-21.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -10.8 (+10.2) | 144.0 (-21.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -9.0 (+12.0) | 145.5 (-22.5) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2024 | OU 79 – 77 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-5 |
| Away | 3-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#19) | 7.5 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#14) | 1.60 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.82 (#12) | 2.46 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#79) | 0.603 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 41.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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