Betting Lines
| Spread | STBK -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | STBK -600 STO +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STBK +18 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | STBK -14.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STBK -8.7 (+9.3) | 142.5 (+1.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STBK -9.5 (+8.5) | 141.1 (+2.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STBK -10.2 (+7.8) | 140.7 (+3.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STBK -10.6 (+7.4) | 139.9 (+4.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-14 |
| Home | 13-3 | 4-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 0-19 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#297) | -15.7 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.72 (#339) | -2.24 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.33 (#325) | -3.13 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#321) | 0.421 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 20.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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