Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -175 LT +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +7 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -2.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (-32.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -1.9 (-8.9) | 136.8 (-31.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -2.8 (-9.8) | 137.0 (-32.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -2.7 (-9.7) | 137.3 (-32.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -0.6 (-7.6) | 138.2 (-33.2) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2022 | SFA 80 – 79 LT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-4 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#90) | 8.1 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#104) | 2.05 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#94) | 2.68 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#100) | 0.622 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 25.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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