We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
William R. Johnson Coliseum · December 6, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SFA -4.5 Away covered
O/U 138.5 Under
Money SFA -175 / LT +188
Model Predictions
Spread Total SFA win
Actual LT +7 105 Lost
Massey SFA -2.7 (-9.7) — —
Massey Totals — 137.8 (-32.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 53% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 58% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SFA -1.9 (-8.9) 136.8 (-31.8) 54% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML SFA -2.8 (-9.8) 137.0 (-32.0) 58% ✗
Baseline ML SFA -2.7 (-9.7) 137.3 (-32.3) 62% ✗
Baseline Plus ML SFA -0.6 (-7.6) 138.2 (-33.2) 53% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 15, 2022 SFA 80 – 79 LT

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SFA LT
Overall 18-15 22-10
Conference 10-10 12-4
Home 10-5 14-2
Away 5-8 8-7
Neutral 3-2 0-1
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.6 72.1
Avg Pts Against 71.8 65.6
Massey 5.0 (#90) 8.1 (#51)
Bradley-Terry 0.88 (#104) 2.05 (#40)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.49 (#94) 2.68 (#49)
RPI 0.552 (#100) 0.622 (#35)
Shooting & Four Factors SFA LT
FG% 48.2% 41.6%
3PT% 38.5% 34.1%
REB / G 34.4 39.2
OREB / G 10.0 11.3
AST / TO 0.63 1.06
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.8% 48.3%
TOV% 25.6% 18.0%
ORB% 31.7% 31.6%
FT Rate 24.9% 28.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.1% 44.6%
Opp TOV% 21.7% 15.3%
DRB% 69.5% 73.2%
Opp FT Rate 33.2% 23.2%

Game Analysis

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