Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Thomas Assembly Center · December 15, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread LT -4.5 Away covered
O/U 144.0 Over
Money LT -195 / SFA +162
Model Predictions
Spread Total LT win
Actual SFA +1 159 Lost
Massey LT -6.3 (-7.3) — —
Massey Totals — 154.7 (+4.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 79% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 70% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LT -4.0 (-5.0) 145.8 (+13.2) 66% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML LT -5.0 (-6.0) 151.0 (+8.0) 70% ✗
Baseline ML LT -5.4 (-6.4) 151.7 (+7.3) 71% ✗
Baseline Plus ML LT -4.5 (-5.5) 149.0 (+10.0) 72% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 6, 2023 LT 56 – 49 SFA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LT SFA
Overall 15-18 19-13
Conference 7-13 11-7
Home 9-6 12-4
Away 4-11 6-5
Neutral 1-1 1-4
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 70.2 74.1
Avg Pts Against 72.0 72.7
Massey 0.5 (#170) -0.6 (#192)
Bradley-Terry 0.33 (#150) 0.02 (#178)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.21 (#199) 0.13 (#167)
RPI 0.499 (#178) 0.465 (#237)
Shooting & Four Factors LT SFA
FG% 46.6% 45.1%
3PT% 38.5% 38.7%
REB / G 32.0 31.9
OREB / G 8.6 12.0
AST / TO 0.88 0.75
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.8% 50.3%
TOV% 21.8% 23.0%
ORB% 27.3% 35.3%
FT Rate 21.4% 29.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.5% 56.3%
Opp TOV% 22.5% 27.4%
DRB% 72.6% 69.5%
Opp FT Rate 28.9% 35.7%

Game Analysis

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