Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | LT -195 SFA +162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +1 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | LT -6.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -4.0 (-5.0) | 145.8 (+13.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -5.0 (-6.0) | 151.0 (+8.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LT -5.4 (-6.4) | 151.7 (+7.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -4.5 (-5.5) | 149.0 (+10.0) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2023 | LT 56 – 49 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#170) | -0.6 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#150) | 0.02 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#199) | 0.13 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#178) | 0.465 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 27.4% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 35.7% |
Game Analysis
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