Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -25.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.0 Under |
| Money | UVA -7000 NCCU +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +30 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -19.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -17.7 (+12.3) | 127.3 (-3.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -15.8 (+14.2) | 127.2 (-3.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -17.2 (+12.8) | 127.9 (-3.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -18.2 (+11.8) | 126.8 (-2.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | UVA 81 – 62 NCCU |
| Nov 8, 2022 | UVA 73 – 61 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#43) | -4.5 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#34) | -1.16 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#41) | -1.81 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#34) | 0.461 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.6% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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