Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -34.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +19 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -32.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -20.9 (-1.9) | 149.8 (-6.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -27.0 (-8.0) | 146.1 (-3.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2023 | UVA 77 – 47 NCCU |
| Nov 8, 2022 | UVA 73 – 61 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#62) | -10.0 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#141) | -0.34 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#124) | -0.54 (#235) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 49.0 | 24.0 |
| OREB / G | 22.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.33 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 9.4% | 24.9% |
| ORB% | 53.7% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 39.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 35.7% | 72.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 54.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.7% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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