Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -33.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 169.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -100000 UAPB +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +40 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -27.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -26.1 (+13.9) | 161.6 (+20.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -22.6 (+17.4) | 164.5 (+17.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -27.7 (+12.3) | 159.4 (+22.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -25.9 (+14.1) | 163.4 (+18.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 83.7 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#34) | -11.4 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#21) | -2.76 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.85 (#23) | -5.10 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.674 (#6) | 0.428 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 61.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 59.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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