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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–2 on winners
spread MAE 7.2
11 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Iowa
@
Purdue
|
+13.9 | 170.7 | 90% | 68–87 | ✓ |
San José State
@
North Dakota State
|
+1.1 | 138.6 | 54% | 78–83 | ✓ |
Furman
@
Arkansas
|
+9.6 | 162.8 | 81% | 83–97 | ✓ |
Arkansas State
@
Alabama
|
+26.5 | 170.4 | 99% | 65–89 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
Oregon State
|
+8.6 | 147.8 | 78% | 63–70 | ✓ |
Central Connecticut
@
Boston College
|
+15.1 | 144.3 | 92% | 68–82 | ✓ |
Le Moyne
@
Army
|
+0.4 | 131.4 | 52% | 51–68 | ✓ |
Florida Atlantic
@
Illinois
|
-4.4 | 145.3 | 35% | 89–98 | ✗ |
George Mason
@
Tennessee
|
+13.0 | 135.1 | 88% | 66–87 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
Winthrop
|
+12.0 | 153.5 | 86% | 82–88 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
Xavier
|
+9.4 | 142.2 | 80% | 87–80 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.