Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | TENN -1400 GMU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +21 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -13.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -11.6 (+9.4) | 141.1 (+11.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -11.3 (+9.7) | 139.0 (+14.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -10.7 (+10.3) | 140.6 (+12.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -11.0 (+10.0) | 140.5 (+12.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#14) | 5.7 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#34) | 1.90 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.72 (#24) | 2.36 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#39) | 0.593 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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