Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ILL +110 FAU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +9 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -3.3 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (+42.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -2.0 (+11.0) | 148.8 (+38.2) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -1.4 (+10.4) | 144.0 (+43.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -1.3 (+10.3) | 145.5 (+41.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -0.4 (+9.4) | 144.9 (+42.1) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 82.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#19) | 16.4 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#47) | 2.71 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#33) | 3.67 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#77) | 0.690 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 49.3 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.9% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.8% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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