Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
| Money | ARK -700 FUR +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +14 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -9.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -8.0 (+6.0) | 157.9 (+22.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -6.8 (+7.2) | 155.2 (+24.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -6.8 (+7.2) | 156.1 (+23.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -7.6 (+6.4) | 157.3 (+22.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#103) | 1.1 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#160) | -0.38 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#142) | -0.35 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#127) | 0.482 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 34.7% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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