Betting Lines
| Spread | LAS -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | LAS -550 L-MD +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +1 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | LAS -11.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-32.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAS -8.0 (-7.0) | 148.0 (-25.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAS -8.3 (-7.3) | 146.3 (-23.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAS -8.7 (-7.7) | 148.9 (-25.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAS -9.6 (-8.6) | 149.3 (-26.3) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 2-11 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#227) | -8.3 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#106) | -2.65 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#124) | -3.96 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#137) | 0.359 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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