Betting Lines
| Spread | BUT -24.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | BUT -4500 BUF +1550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUT +13 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | BUT -34.1 (-21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUT -20.3 (-7.3) | 148.3 (-17.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUT -22.6 (-9.6) | 149.5 (-18.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUT -26.5 (-13.5) | 151.0 (-20.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUT -27.1 (-14.1) | 149.2 (-18.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUT | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 2-16 |
| Home | 12-6 | 2-13 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 79.6 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#23) | -16.1 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#81) | -3.94 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#78) | -5.55 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#53) | 0.367 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUT | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 59.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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